Category: Governance

August stock prices rose sharply until the first half of the month as the U.S. stock market rallied on expectations of an early end to monetary tightening in the U.S. Toward the end of the month, the market turned highly volatile as the U.S. stock market fell on the concern about longer-than-expected U.S. monetary tightening. The CG Top 20 outperformed both TOPIX and JPX400 during the month.

Until mid-August, the stock market rallied in favor of the U.S. stock market, which rose on expectations of an early end to the U.S. monetary tightening due to the U.S. economic recession speculation. In the latter half of the month, market volatility increased due to concerns about the U.S. FED’s long-term monetary tightening. The TOPIX and JPX400 indexes gained 1.53% and 1.33%, respectively, during the month of August, while the CG Top20 index outperformed both indices, rising 1.66%. The table below shows the components of the CG Top 20 as reviewed on July 1.

The common goal of both company management and shareholders is the sustainable growth of the company’s corporate value. Finding such a company is also an important objective for investors. To explore this, I would like to use the 1,487 comparable companies in the Metrical Universe for the period from the end of December 2020 to the end of February 2022 to explore changes in market capitalization and effective factors during this period.

The table below shows the correlation analysis between changes in market capitalization and changes in the Profile and Key Performance Indicators for the period from the end of December 2020 to the end of February 2022. For the period in question, the change in market capitalization shows a significant positive correlation with the change in total assets, the change in foreign ownership, and the change in Tobin’s q. This indicates that companies with higher market capitalization tend to have higher total assets, higher foreign ownership ratios, and higher Tobin’s q. Behind the increase in market capitalization, it makes sense that Tobin’s q, which represents valuations, would increase. It is also natural that there is a correlation between changes in the foreign shareholding ratio and changes in market capitalization in the Tokyo stock market, where foreign investor trading has a strong presence. As for the correlation between changes in total assets and changes in market capitalization, one factor may be the increase in assets supporting earnings growth, but this remains to be examined. On the other hand, change in market capitalization did not show a significant positive correlation with change in cash equivalents, change in ROE, or change in ROA. It can be seen that in the period in question, the change in profitability on an actual basis over the past 3 years did not have much impact on the change in market capitalization.

I am sure you are aware that the number of companies moving to retire treasury stock is gradually increasing due to prime market listing standards. In my previous article, Metrical’s analysis has also revealed that companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times are also more positive in their corporate governance efforts. If share repurchases are a sign that corporate governance initiatives and performance improvement are working in tandem, it is very welcome. I would like to think more about how the actual action taken by the company to retire its own shares relates to corporate governance.

The table below shows the correlation between the frequency of share buybacks and ROE, ROA, and Tobin’s q for the Metrical Universe (as of 1/2022). As shown in the previous article, a highly significant positive correlation between the frequency of share buybacks and ROE and ROA has been confirmed, indicating that the more frequently a company retires its own shares, the higher its ROE and ROA.

This result seems reasonable, because to cancel treasury stock, a company has to buy back its own shares, which has a positive effect on ROE and ROA. On the other hand, the correlation between Tobin’s q and the frequency of share repurchases is not shown to be significant. This means that a company that retires its own shares more frequently does not have a higher stock price valuation, which means that a company that retires its own shares does not have a significant relationship with its stock price valuation. Although the company buys back its own shares before retiring them, this result is also reasonable because the company does not take Tobin’s q (P/B) into account when making its decision to buy back its own shares. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that there is a highly significant positive correlation between the rate of change in market capitalization (12/2021-1/2022) and the frequency of stock repurchases. Even though the frequency of share buybacks is not correlated with respect to stock price premium or discount, it is related to the rate of change in market capitalization over the period 12/2021-1/2022. Over this 13-month period, the more frequent the company’s share retirement (or stock repurchase), the greater the increase in market capitalization. The results show that stock retirement was associated with an increase in market capitalization over this period.