METRICAL: What Factors Most Affect Stock Returns?

The common goal of both company management and shareholders is the sustainable growth of the company’s corporate value. Finding such a company is also an important objective for investors. To explore this, I would like to use the 1,487 comparable companies in the Metrical Universe for the period from the end of December 2020 to the end of February 2022 to explore changes in market capitalization and effective factors during this period.

The table below shows the correlation analysis between changes in market capitalization and changes in the Profile and Key Performance Indicators for the period from the end of December 2020 to the end of February 2022. For the period in question, the change in market capitalization shows a significant positive correlation with the change in total assets, the change in foreign ownership, and the change in Tobin’s q. This indicates that companies with higher market capitalization tend to have higher total assets, higher foreign ownership ratios, and higher Tobin’s q. Behind the increase in market capitalization, it makes sense that Tobin’s q, which represents valuations, would increase. It is also natural that there is a correlation between changes in the foreign shareholding ratio and changes in market capitalization in the Tokyo stock market, where foreign investor trading has a strong presence. As for the correlation between changes in total assets and changes in market capitalization, one factor may be the increase in assets supporting earnings growth, but this remains to be examined. On the other hand, change in market capitalization did not show a significant positive correlation with change in cash equivalents, change in ROE, or change in ROA. It can be seen that in the period in question, the change in profitability on an actual basis over the past 3 years did not have much impact on the change in market capitalization.

METRICAL: CG Stock Performance (Japan): July 2022

In July, the stock market was supported by the strong U.S. stock market and began to test a return from the second half of the month. The CG Top20, whose components were changed once a year starting this month, continues to outperform over the long term while slightly underperforming against both the TOPIX and JPX400 over the one-month period.

The stock market was firm from the second half of the month as the U.S. market rallied in mid-July on the back of lower long-term interest rates in anticipation of a recession in the U.S. economy. Over the long term since 2014, the CG Top 20 has continued to outperform both indices by about 2% per year. Over the long term since 2014, the CG Top20 continues to outperform both indices by about 2% per annum. The CG Top 20 has been reassessed as of July 1. The new individual stocks are listed in the table below.ly 2022

METRICAL: Considerations Regarding Retirement of Treasury Stock

I am sure you are aware that the number of companies moving to retire treasury stock is gradually increasing due to prime market listing standards. In my previous article, Metrical’s analysis has also revealed that companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times are also more positive in their corporate governance efforts. If share repurchases are a sign that corporate governance initiatives and performance improvement are working in tandem, it is very welcome. I would like to think more about how the actual action taken by the company to retire its own shares relates to corporate governance.

The table below shows the correlation between the frequency of share buybacks and ROE, ROA, and Tobin’s q for the Metrical Universe (as of 1/2022). As shown in the previous article, a highly significant positive correlation between the frequency of share buybacks and ROE and ROA has been confirmed, indicating that the more frequently a company retires its own shares, the higher its ROE and ROA.

This result seems reasonable, because to cancel treasury stock, a company has to buy back its own shares, which has a positive effect on ROE and ROA. On the other hand, the correlation between Tobin’s q and the frequency of share repurchases is not shown to be significant. This means that a company that retires its own shares more frequently does not have a higher stock price valuation, which means that a company that retires its own shares does not have a significant relationship with its stock price valuation. Although the company buys back its own shares before retiring them, this result is also reasonable because the company does not take Tobin’s q (P/B) into account when making its decision to buy back its own shares. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that there is a highly significant positive correlation between the rate of change in market capitalization (12/2021-1/2022) and the frequency of stock repurchases. Even though the frequency of share buybacks is not correlated with respect to stock price premium or discount, it is related to the rate of change in market capitalization over the period 12/2021-1/2022. Over this 13-month period, the more frequent the company’s share retirement (or stock repurchase), the greater the increase in market capitalization. The results show that stock retirement was associated with an increase in market capitalization over this period.

METRICAL: CG Stock Performance (Japan): June 2022

June stock market also ended the month with direction-less trading, after large swings up and down led by the U.S. stock market. The CG Top 20 stock index largely outperformed while both the TOPIX and JPX400 indexes declined.

After falling in mid-June on the back of the U.S. stock prices decline due to a rise in the U.S. CPI, Japan’s market was expected to continue its rebound phase in the second half of the month due to a sense of buying on declining.
While both TOPIX and JPX400 weakened -2.08% and -2.42% in June respectively, the CG Top 20 rose +1.03% and outperformed both indices significantly.

METRICAL:How Far Has CG improved in 2021 (5) – Changes In % of Independent Directors

In my previous article, “How far has corporate governance progressed in 2021 (4),” I discussed the correlation analysis of each measure of corporate governance practices with the respective rates of change in ROA and ROE as of December 2020 and December 2021 for 1,704 companies in the Metrical Universe. The results showed that when corporate governance practices are divided into board practices and key actions, ROA and ROE both showed significant correlations with key actions, but no significant correlations with board practices. ROA and ROE are both significantly correlated with key actions, but not with board practices (see table below). From this, we can infer that in the 2021 analysis period, the increase in company profits and the confidence of good performance did not provide an incentive to improve board practices. We have told you that the company may have had some other motivation to improve board practices.

METRICAL:CG Stock Performance (Japan): May 2022

May stocks closed the month recovering the price declines of the first half of the month as the U.S. stock market rallied in favor of a slowdown in the rise of inflation numbers. CG Top 20 stocks underperformed against both TOPIX and JPX400 indices in the bear market.

In the first half of the month, the stock prices slumped as U.S. stocks weakened due to concerns about rising U.S. interest rates. At the end of the month, U.S. stocks rose sharply on expectations that U.S. inflation numbers would peak out, and edged higher recovering the declines of the early the month. Both Topix and JPX400 indexes rebounded 0.78% and 0.82%, respectively, during the month of May. Meanwhile, the CGTop20 stock index, the top CG Rating Score, underperformed against both indices, sliding -0.19%.

METRICAL: How Far Corporate Governance Has Progressed in 2021 (4) – Change in ROA and ROE and Corporate Governance Practices

In my previous article, “How far has corporate governance progressed in 2021 (3),” I discussed the results of a correlation analysis between the percentage change in market capitalization as of December 2020 and December 2021 for 1,704 companies in the Metrical universe and the respective changes in Tobin ‘s q, ROA, and Metrical Score, respectively. The results of the analysis showed a significant positive correlation between the percentage change in market capitalization and the respective percentage changes in Tobin’s q, ROA and Metrical score, as shown in the table below.

In this article, I would like to focus on the question of why the percentage change in market capitalization has a more significant positive correlation with ROA than with ROE. As you know, ROA is a measure of a company’s earnings power, while ROE can be increased by changing the capital structure to match that earning power. This means that ROA can be directly impacted by improving business performance, while ROE can be increased without necessarily relying directly on improving business performance. In this article, I would like to examine whether there has been any change in the corporate governance practices of the companies whose ROA has improved (and thus whose market capitalization tends to increase).

The table below shows the percentage change in ROA for 1,704 companies in the Metrical Universe as of December 2020 and December 2021, correlated with each of the Corporate Governance Practices. The table below shows the results separately for Board Practices and Key Actions. There is a significant positive correlation between the cash holding score and the dividend policy score among the key actions that the company actually takes, and a significant negative correlation between the growth policy score and the rate of change of ROA in one year in 2021. It could be argued that a company is not motivated to change its board practices because of a one-year change in ROA. On the other hand, for key actions, we found that when ROA changed over the year, the company tended to reduce cash by increasing dividends. Although further analysis is needed to determine the significant negative correlation between ROA change and growth policy, it may be inferred that the cash accumulated in the balance sheet due to the increase in profits was used to return profits to shareholders through dividend increases, but the use of cash to invest in growth is still lacking in conviction.

METRICAL:How far has corporate governance progressed in 2021(3)

Following on from my previous articles “How far has corporate governance progressed in 2021 (1)” and “How far has corporate governance progressed in 2021 (2),” I would like to take a look at how far efforts to improve corporate governance at listed companies have progressed in 2021. In this article, I would like to look at how much progress has been made by listed companies in improving corporate governance in 2021.

To briefly summarize the previous two articles, with regard to board practices, I reported that there was little improvement or only limited improvement in the evaluation items that were not specifically mentioned for improvement in the revised Corporate Governance Code, such as board chairmanship, female directors, and anti-takeover measures. In terms of key actions actually taken by listed companies, I reported that the effective use of cash and policy holdings and the clear articulation of growth strategies are likely to continue to be issues this year. Considering the fact that the percentage of foreign shareholders has slightly decreased while stock prices and valuations have risen, I can conclude that the effective use of cash and assets with growth potential may still be an issue, as it may be related to the sluggish growth of ROE and ROA.

This article will be analyzed in terms of how much each company’s market capitalization has grown. The table below shows the change in market capitalization of the 1,704 companies in the Metrical Universe that are comparable in December 2020 and December 2021. The median market capitalization of the 1,704 companies in the Metrical Universe as of December 2020 was 385,547 million yen, and the median market capitalization of the 1,704 companies in the Metrical Universe as of December 2020 increased to 421,138 million yen, an increase of 9.23% over one year.

The table below shows the median ROE and ROA of the 1,704 companies in the metrical universe as of December 2020 and December 2021. Since ROE and ROA are averages of the past three years, ROE and ROA as of December 2020 are slightly lower than the previous year, reflecting the performance of FY2020, which was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tobin’s q, on the other hand, has been rising on the back of higher stock prices.

METRICAL: How Far Has Corporate Governance Progressed in 2021? (2)

I would like to take a look at how far efforts to improve corporate governance at listed companies have progressed in 2021. With the April 2022 reorganization of TSE’s market reclassification, the Corporate Governance Code was revised in 2021. As a result, we reconfirmed that the percentage of independent directors and the nomination and compensation committees, which were specifically mentioned as areas for improvement in the revised Corporate Governance Code, have improved. At the same time, efforts to improve the corporate governance of listed companies are also expected to move forward. I would like to have figures to see how far corporate governance has improved as a result of these efforts. In my previous article, I reported that there has been little or limited improvement in the evaluation items that were not specifically mentioned as items to be improved in the revised Corporate Governance Code, such as the chair of the board of directors, female directors, and takeover defense measures.

METRICAL:TSE Prime Market Listing Criteria and Use of Electronic Voting Platform and Disclosure in English

TSE reorganizes its market reclassification, the guidelines for “higher governance standards” required for the prime market, which is equivalent to the current 1st Section market, have been presented.

In this article, I would like to focus on the use of electronic voting platforms and disclosure in English. In the Corporate Governance Code revised in June 2021, Supplemental Principles 1-2 (4), 1-2 (4), and 3-1 (2) state that companies listed on the prime market are required to use electronic voting platforms and disclose information in English under “Use of electronic voting platforms and disclosure in English.”

The original text is as follows Supplementary Principle 1-2(4), “Listed companies should promote the creation of an environment to enable electronic exercise of voting rights (e.g., use of electronic voting platforms) and the translation of convocation notices into English, taking into account the ratio of institutional investors and overseas investors among their shareholders. In particular, companies listed on the prime market should be able to use electronic voting platforms, at least for institutional investors.”

Supplementary Principle 3-1 (2), “Listed companies should promote disclosure and provision of information in English to a reasonable extent, taking into account the ratio of overseas investors, etc. among their shareholders. In particular, companies listed on the prime market should disclose and provide necessary information in English in their disclosure documents.”

In summary, Supplemental Principle 1-2(iv) clearly states that companies listed on the prime market should make available an electronic platform to facilitate the exercise of voting rights and that English translations of convocation notices should be sent to overseas investors. Supplemental Principle 3-1(2) clearly states that companies listed on the prime market should disclose and provide required information in English in their disclosure documents.

Since supplementary principle 1-2(4) specifies the means of exercising voting as “electronic platforms should be made available,” companies listed on the prime market will have to be ready to use these by the next general shareholders meeting. Since it is a recommendation to send convocation notices in English translation, it is an effort target since it is not as urgent as electronic platforms. The supplementary principle 3-1 (2) states that companies listed on the prime market should disclose and provide required information among disclosure documents in English, but it does not specify what the required documents are, so it is left to the judgment of companies listed on the prime market as to which documents or information need to be translated into English. One piece of information that I believe should be translated into English is the annual securities report. Since this document is a legal document, it contains all the necessary information. Everything in this document, including the notes, should be translated into English. There are times when we receive questions from overseas institutional investors about a particular company, and since there are many items that are described in the annual securities report (for information that is not described in the annual securities report, we have to ask the listed company in question), it would be a great convenience for overseas institutional investors if this document, which contains very useful information for investors, were translated into English. At present, there are very few listed companies that translate these documents into English.

I have reported on the status of information disclosure in English by listed companies. This time, as mentioned above, I would like to focus on the use of electronic voting platforms and English-language disclosure in accordance with the TSE Prime Market listing criteria.

The table below shows the use of e-voting platforms and English-language disclosure by companies in the Metrical Universe (as of October 2021) based on information obtained from TSE disclosure and corporate governance reports. According to the report, 64.7% of the 1,716 companies in the Metrical Universe are able to use the e-voting platform required for companies listed on the prime market under the supplementary principle 1-2(4), and 69.5% of the companies have translated their convocation notices into English, which is required as much as possible. For reference, apart from providing an electronic voting platform, 78.9% of the companies support the exercise of voting rights by electronic means.

As for the disclosure and provision of required information in English, which is required for companies listed on the prime market in the supplementary principle 3-1 (2), as mentioned above, it is not specified what the required documents are, but I will refer to the TSE’s data “Availability of English Disclosure Information by Listed Companies.” From the TSE data, we can see that the following 4 types of documents are disclosed in English: Earnings Reports in English, Corporate Governance Reports in English, Annual Securities Reports in English, and IR Presentations in English. 62.8% of the 1,716 companies in the Metrical Universe disclose Earnings Reports in English, 21.6% of the companies disclose Corporate Governance Reports in English, 11.5% of companies disclose Annual Securities Reports in English, and 66.6% of companies disclose IR Presentations in English.